North Korea does not currently appear to be taking any military steps
in response to the deteriorating political situation in the South.
however. the events of 26 October and 12 December 1979 caught the North
by surprise. That is not true of the present situation. As me pointed
out in SNIE 42/14.2-79. 20 December 1979. and in an Alert Memorandum.
8 February 1980. the emergence of widespread civil disorder in the South
would prompt Pyongyang to consider forceful reunification of the peninsula.
If Washington were seen to be preoccupied with the situation in South
Asia and domestic issues. Pyongyang would probably be further emboldened
by a conclusion that the US capacity to resolve the situation in the
South or to defend South Korea was seriously weakened